Accepting Market Uncertainty

psychology Apr 23, 2024

Accepting Uncertainty in Trading.

Take a longer listen to out Trading Podcast about Accepting Market Uncertainty!

The meltdown of 2022 has wiped out more than $7 trillion in market value from the blue chip stocks in the S&P 500. The index is down nearly 18% since the end of December.

Set the context for the conversion, going over recent events that’s creating our market environment

War.

Stocks - all these stocks are down:

Crypto is down -$200 billion market cap gone in a day, bitcoin is at a 50% from the high

There is a lot of uncertainty out there. What does uncertain mean?

Uncertain - not able to be relied on; not known or definite.

Glenn observation - according to historic data of DOW jones index, we never had bear run longer than 4 consecutive months. (this is data gathered since 1929). 1929 lasted for two years. Back in the day, took longer for the market to move.

1929 - overall 2 year bear trend, -84%

2008 - 6 months straight, but a -37% drop only

2022 - 2 months consecutive, with one month gain in march followed by 2 more months in bear market.

Prime example of how the media manipulates information and adds to fear. “End of the world mentality”.

Playing off of that FEAR.

All the info they show the audience is the negative stuff.

Most viewers don't know how to look at the chart. The information is in the CHARTS.

If we look at history. It repeats itself -

Edge for any market environment. That ege

Systems, Edges, refinement. Accep

At the core, humans find security in repetition - because there is a sense of predictability (knowing what's gonna happen next), because that leaves room for expectancy, it eliminates uncertainty which is why edges with patterns and indicators are prominent in strategies. (I use both).
*Pattern Trading - Hard truth however, which must be accepted is that the markets are in a constant state of uncertainty - we do not know what will happen next. Since it has happened in the past 99% of the time, does not mean it will happen again in the next position.
When it doesn't work out, then far too many traders can't help but "improve" their trading system. When you’re first starting out Stop trying to refine the simple strategy until you have a “perfect system” - Use car analogy, if you’re trying to build a car to get you from point a to point b.
Airbags on a car - risk management
There must be refinement but we talk about the
which is why we trade probabilities. Nothing is a guarantee but probability is that edge.

How to Navigate Market Uncertainty.

1 Accept uncertainty, you never know what's gonna happen after you place a trade. Or what the future market levels will be at.

2. Find a robust system/edge to use and navigate the markets - bear, bull, neutral, consolidating markets.

3. Trust your system and process. Don’t give up easily through the tough times that will eventually help you build confidence. Look at how the big players navigate during these times. They have to be confident in the decisions they make, right or wrong.

4. Find a community that will help cultivate your growth. Join our community at hawaiitradingacademy.com

Aloha! We are Glenn & Reid, founders of Hawai'i Trading Academy.

Our Mission: Empower & nurture traders.

Our Ethos: Integrity and transparency guide us as we focus on the essential pillars of trading success: Risk Management, Edge, and Psychology.

Create Your Own Success In The Markets.

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Mahalo for reading.

Safe Trading!

Accepting Market Uncertainty

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